Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 4.115674e-01 0.481626 0.557488 0.645433 0.744261 0.851567 0.976563
2025-03-23 3.043518e-01 0.393351 0.497273 0.626436 0.781442 0.960226 1.180691
2025-03-30 2.094178e-01 0.300653 0.415849 0.569373 0.765746 1.005503 1.317019
2025-04-06 1.482725e-01 0.237668 0.359967 0.534623 0.772131 1.077934 1.494640
2025-04-13 1.026795e-01 0.185609 0.309175 0.498640 0.772493 1.143735 1.672973
2025-04-20 7.538515e-02 0.153870 0.281072 0.489748 0.808828 1.261889 1.933954
2025-04-27 5.356533e-02 0.124911 0.251400 0.473859 0.833702 1.368283 2.192022
2025-05-04 3.915127e-02 0.104672 0.231695 0.470554 0.877776 1.508245 2.513445
2025-05-11 2.808641e-02 0.087022 0.212473 0.464854 0.917903 1.647693 2.849330
2025-05-18 1.810811e-02 0.067110 0.183473 0.436072 0.915841 1.722173 3.095608
2025-05-25 1.097739e-02 0.050103 0.155038 0.402083 0.899490 1.772079 3.309223
2025-06-01 7.078008e-03 0.039792 0.138324 0.388156 0.917891 1.882414 3.631022
2025-06-08 4.273086e-03 0.030832 0.122084 0.372902 0.934607 1.997466 3.981592
2025-06-15 2.926232e-03 0.026449 0.116874 0.382419 1.003604 2.214949 4.527954
2025-06-22 1.573551e-03 0.019751 0.101196 0.361997 1.006888 2.312663 4.876403
2025-06-29 8.679565e-04 0.015390 0.090874 0.352782 1.033558 2.458495 5.324832
2025-07-06 4.304586e-04 0.011624 0.080222 0.339395 1.048642 2.583865 5.747742
2025-07-13 2.410582e-04 0.009632 0.075764 0.343458 1.106388 2.801407 6.360106
2025-07-20 1.164119e-04 0.007640 0.069678 0.340499 1.146584 2.987288 6.927412
2025-07-27 5.801750e-05 0.006348 0.066250 0.345705 1.209113 3.227089 7.617462
2025-08-03 2.517721e-05 0.005166 0.062306 0.347893 1.264334 3.456759 8.304340
2025-08-10 6.117028e-06 0.003663 0.054091 0.330576 1.262962 3.561597 8.749969
2025-08-17 7.192018e-07 0.002425 0.045539 0.307814 1.241463 3.618539 9.102500